Another Orange Revolution?

I was sitting in the library today, not wanting to study the romantic poets with their obsessive amount that they like to go on about flowers, God and the glory of it all. They sound a little something like this (at least to me they do):

"I am sitting on a hill, looking upon this flower. This flower is beautiful but not in it's earthly form! It has a flowerness! A flower essence! The flower essence came from the Devince. I am too humble compared to God to speak of the Devine and what He means. Even though I just said the last sentence I am going to speak about it anyways (because secretly I think I am the most amazing person ever). The flower is beauty and beauty is the Devine and God is beautiful! Ah! What is that I see? A blade of grass? How could that be! (<- notice the rhyme?) A blade of grass to show it's essence to me. I think I will now frolic in a field. Excuse me for a while while I narrate my frolicking.)"


So I was sitting in the library trying to keep a grip on reality while the Romantic Poets teamed up to try to stage a coup of my last remaining sane brain cells when I noticed the paper sitting on the table. I decided to put my best defense forward and try to block their attack with a healthy dose of reality.


I noticed on the paper, where it had been left open, that there was an article about Ukraine. The Ukraine has been a country that I have been interested in for some time, since I started to learn about the Orange Revolution.The Orange Revolution was a mass nonviolent movement. The movement occurred because there was fraud during the elections. One candidate, Yanukovich, was found to have rigged the elections so that he would win against Yushchenko. Yushchenko and his partner Tymoshenko started the Orange Revolution to revolt against the corrupt government. There were approximately 1 million people who came to Kiev (this number has been disputed, some sources believe there was a half a million people). The people were protesting the unfair elections. There were a total of three elections and one court case before anything happened. Yushchenko ended up winning the presidential elections, due to the support of the revolution.


As I am a student in Peace and Conflict studies this, of course, raises my interest. I do not pretend to be an expert in what has gone on in the Ukraine, I have only had two classes on the subject matter. I am, however, interested in what is going on with the country's politics.


It seems as though there may be another Orange Revolution. Another? Did everyone not learn their lessons from the first revolution? If there is a possibility of another revolution will it be nonviolent or bloody? I would hate to see the name of the Orange Revolution turn red. I wait nervously to see what happens in Ukraine. I honestly hope that there will be no more cheating in the election polls and that somehow, it all turns out right. This may be a little naive of me to think that every story has a magical ending, but I do still hope for one. One way or another I think my friends who are going to the Ukraine should keep a close eye on this. This could end up being an interesting turn of events, and depending on how long it takes they may be in Ukraine during another nonviolent protest.


Here is the article I was reading from the National Post:

Ukrainian PM vows Orange street protest

Peter O'Neil, Canwest News Service Published: Friday, February 05, 2010

VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH

Ukraine faces the risk of chaos after Sunday's presidential vote after Yulia Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister, threatened yesterday to create another massive Orange Revolution-style demonstration to prevent her loss to front-runner Viktor Yanukovych.

She was responding to election-law changes, orchestrated on Wednesday by Mr. Yanukovych's parliamentary supporters, which could increase the likelihood of fraud similar to that in 2004, which precipitated the huge demonstrations.

"I ask you not to allow Yanukovych to rape our democracy, our election and our country!" said Ms. Tymoshenko, who finished 10 percentage points behind her bitter rival in the first round of voting last month.

"If we do not manage ... to ensure that the expression of the people's will and the results of this will are held in an honest way we will call people out.

"If Yanukovych wants an honest fight, we are ready to compete with him, but if he seeks to cheat, we will be able to rebuff him in a way he has never seen, even in 2004."

Mr. Yanukovych, whose 2004 presidential victory was overturned after evidence of widespread vote-rigging, ridiculed her gambit.

"This is a sign of weakness and a sign that she has understood she is losing," he said in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, one of his power bases.

"The only people who will go to Independence Square [the site of the Orange Revolution protests] are those who like the same dishes as Tymoshenko --dirt, lies and slander."

The possibility of a post-election street fight -- and court battle -- increases uncertainty in a country of 46 million that is seeking the resumption of a suspended US$16.4-billion International Monetary Fund loan.

The legislative changes affect the rules governing polling stations and could increase the risk of partisan influence of the vote process, analysts say.

The new rules were quickly signed into law by President Viktor Yushchenko, Mr. Tymoshenko's 2004 Orange Revolution partner, who became her arch-rival.

"The changes do not make fraud inevitable, but they weaken the insurance mechanisms that are designed to stop it," Andrew Wilson, an analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in his blog.

"Yanukovych's supporters, meanwhile, have reminded the world that they have never come to terms with, or even admitted, what they did in 2004."

But Mr. Wilson and David Marples, a historian at the University of Alberta believe the legal changes are also being exploited by Ms. Tymoshenko, a firebrand populist.

The Ukrainian Prime Minister is sounding increasingly "desperate" and appears to be implying she won't accept defeat, said Mr. Marples, director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, in an email.

"But the fact remains that few, if any discrepancies of voting procedure were observed in the first round. I am not suggesting that a Yanukovych presidency would be good for Ukraine, or that he is [a] pleasant or particularly honest man.

"Yet, if he won the first round by more than 10 [percentage points] without cheating, then why would he cheat on the second, especially with the entire world watching?"

Serhy Yekelchyk at the University of Victoria said Ms. Tymoshenko knows she's about to lose and will "try everything" to stay in power.

"It is not going to work this time, though. No repeat of 2004.

"The people are disillusioned with the Orange revolutionaries, who did not fulfil their hefty promises of 2004. Instead, they became mired in the same dirty politics and backroom deals so repulsive to ordinary Ukrainians."

Taken from the National Post